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Keyword Planner forecasts, are they accurate?
Hey and good morning!
I’m preparing a campaign for a new project of mine and when I set up my campaign in Adsense the forecast throws 40M impressions with a CTR of 30%
It’s a very controversial topic in my country and it’s on everyone’s mouths everyday for years now.
I’m wondering if this number could be inflated somehow.
I have a smaller campaign running and I’ve had 15k impressions for my ad with a CTR of 15%, thought it doesn’t have the same set of keywords for it.
So my question is how accurate those forecasts are? Because at 40M impressions with a 15% CTR it’s still a good number
Thanks!
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1 Reply
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They are ballpark figures at best. Useful if your own first-party data is limited and you don’t have anything to reference but don’t take the figures as absolute.
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Search volume forecasts are usually very accurate as that’s Google’s data. But you need to be realistic about how much of that impression share you can capture without setting very high bids. Pay attention to CPC estimates because if they look expensive to you, bidding lower might really restrict your reach.
For CTR forecast I wouldn’t rely on that data, as your CTRs will depend on the quality of your ads and offer. Google has no idea how good your ads and offer are going to be, so they can’t accurately forecast your CTR.
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By definition a forecast is a prediction or estimate. The weather forecast is wrong quite often. Google is in the business of making money, which involves being accurate enough that people don’t revolt. But they aren’t about to tell anybody how often they’re wrong.
All that to say, take any Goole forecasts with a grain of salt and the knowledge that their goal is having you spend more.
Plus, any result metrics are entirely dependent on your ads themselves being any good.
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Yes and no. Depends on the match type you run. That said, volume is irrelevant if you don’t bid enough to capture impression and click share. So as others mentioned, be mindful of what you’re willing to bid.
If you have a rep/team, reach out and ask for a vertical/category forecast.
Also, where did you get the 15% CTR from? Is there zero competition? That seems super high unless it’s low competition.
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Also the entire forecast is if your competitors don’t react to your increases. It’s a whole new (and more expensive) curve when they counter your bids with higher cpcs.
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No, not even close.
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Though the volume is actual Google’s data, not all can be captured due to ad rank so you will have to look at a historical impression share to realistically assume the number of impressions you get
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