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Help With google Ads Seasonality Adjustments
When making seasonality adjustments, I know many use it for when they run a promotion/sale or something similar, where they can compared conversion rates to the last time they ran a promotion/sale and then adjust accordingly.
My question is how do I determine the lookback/comparison windows for seasonality adjustments, using the following made up table as an example:
|Dates|Description|Average CVR|
|:-|:-|:-|
|December|Full Month / Date Range For Reference|2.7% Average, With A Range Of 2.3% – 3.4%|
|December 16 – 20|5 Days Immediately Before (Same Amount Of Days As Proposed Adjustment)|2.6% Average, With A Range Of 2.4% – 2.8%|
|**December 21 – 25**|**Proposed Adjustment Period**|**3.2% Average, With A Range Of 3.2% – 3.4%**|
|December 26 – 30|5 Days Immediately After (Same Amount Of Days As Proposed Adjustment)|2.4% Average, With A Range Of 2.4% – 2.7%|Ok, so I can clearly see my conversion rate spikes between December 21-25th. However, what number do I compare it to when determining how much of an adjustment I should make?
* Would it be compared to the entire month’s average?
* Example: 3.2% / 2.7% = 1.19 = **+19% Bid Adjustment**
* Would it be compared to the same amount of days prior to the bid adjustment dates (5 days)?
* Example: 3.2% / 2.6% = 1.23 = **+23% Bid Adjustment**
* Would it be compared to the days after to the bid adjustment dates (5 days)?
* Example: 3.2 % / 2.4% = 1.33 = **+33% Bid Adjustment**
* Would it be a different time frame all-together?Any help on this would be huge, as there doesn’t seem to be much literature regarding how you compare performance to make a judgment on your adjustment.
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1 Reply
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I’m interested in this as well. We launched our PPC campaigns last year and since they had no historical data, we couldn’t run seasonality adjustments, but this year we are looking to do them in the new year (when our products historically take off).
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Aren’t you able to build this using a tool like revealbot? I haven’t personally done this for Google, but have used this in FB
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The seasonal adjust is for very short term uplifts. I would take the month, I would take the closest data your have 1 week because there is typically a seasonality to a week.
So if you’re CVR was x during the week and your suspect a +23 percent that I’d do that. Do not take into the the consideration of the after lift period your standard strat should be able to -
It’s the second one, probably about a week before. Whatever google is using as an estimate for your CVR during its bidding at that time, which focuses a lot on recent performance.
Honestly tho a 19% and 23% adjustment won’t act much differently, so you’re safe either way.
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