I’ve recently come to the realization this is true. I had a slightly difficult Q4 in 2019, and then I started off 2020 and sure enough, things picked up the end of January. My plan was to prep for Q4 in 2020 when I really should have taken better advantage of the lower competition in Q1-Q3. I certainly put far too much stock in Q4 and things declined steadily after September. BFCM this year was the first time I’ve ever not made a profitable ROAS in the last 4 years.
That said, It just encourages me to take better advantage of the rest of the year when, you know, CPM’s are not like 3x higher because of the insane competition. I’d never hit a CPM over $25 in the last 3 years with my business but it has been solidly that high in the last 3 months.