November 2020 is not your typical “late October decline” for multiple reasons
1. The effect of the new adwords rules for zip code targeting
2. New rules in Adwords regarding credit targeting
3. A disputed elected
4. Media about second wave of covid
5. Stimulus uncertainty
6. Black Friday and cyber Monday
7. Unusually high unemployment
This is for all intents and purposes the “worst case scenario”.
Ad spend does not translate to proper analysis. Plenty of companies waste ungodly amounts of money and get nothing out of it. Ebay experiment on buying its own name being a prime example.