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PPC Forecast
I’m trying to create a forecast for a client but i’m struggling.
They have £10000 to spend for 3 months on facebook, instagram and google ads.
They are going to have a 10% offer.
How do i go about forecasting how much they should spend on each channel, how much revenue they can make, their CPA and ROI?
Their Average order value is £15 and website conversion rate is 2%.
Im guessing the AOV will increase because of the 10% sale
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2 Replies
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First raise the price 50% then do a 40% off sale. 10% off is a “who cares” discount. Customers want 40% off. Just because it’s the same $29.99 either way doesn’t mean it isn’t 40% off.
The only thing we know about the future is that we don’t know what will happen in the future. After I’ve established that fact with a client, I will show cost per click and conversion rate hypotheticals to show possible outcomes.
Emphasis on possible. If you say or indicate in any way that the cost per lead will be X, it will come it at X+ one penny and the client is mad because you’re a liar. If you give an estimate make absolutely sure you’ve mitigated this with explicit conversation with the client or you’ll regret it.
Best of luck!
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Good question, i’m also looking into ways to better forecast our marketing spend & sales. When Googling’ I came across a marketing forecast built with an online tool called Causal app.
[https://mackgrenfell.com/marketing-forecaster](https://mackgrenfell.com/marketing-forecaster)
I’m not a data scientist so not 100% sure how the Causal app works, but apparently it uses a method called Monte Carlo simulation which runs a lot of simulations based on input ranges (so in your example on CVR, instead of using 2% CVR as input, you can give a range between 0,5% and 2,5% and this gives you an output with a probability distribution).
But also following this thread for any other tips.
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